Is the price adjustment of the hottest express com

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Express companies have adjusted prices one after another. Are cartons in urgent need? Or is market development inevitable

release date: Source: Hangzhou editor: Yu Jia Views: 1951 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: Ma Junsheng, director of the state post administration, said in his speech on World Post Day on October 9 that China's express business volume has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years, contributing 40% to the growth of the global express industry. On the 10th and 11th, Zhongtong express and Yunda express successively announced the adjustment of express prices

[China Packaging News] Ma Junsheng, director of the state post administration, just said in his speech on World Post Day on October 9 that China's express business volume has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years, with a contribution rate of 40% to the growth of the global express industry. On the 10th and 11th, Zhongtong express and Yunda express successively announced the adjustment of express prices

in less than a month from the double 11, the two enterprises in the "three supplies and one delivery" have adjusted their prices one after another, which has not only generated significant repercussions in the industry, but also attracted the attention of many consumers

a little means that one ticket rises by one yuan

for the specific price adjustment range, Zhongtong and Yunda did not give specific figures, saying "consult the local place for specific conditions". Zhongtong said that due to the different cost structure and rates in various regions, the specific price adjustment range should be reasonably adjusted by each point according to the local market and business conditions

"from Shanghai to Beijing, sending one ordinary Express (within 1kg) is 12 yuan, and the price has not been adjusted yet. It should be increased before the double 11, about one yuan per ticket." Said the head of a Zhongtong point in Beicai Town, Pudong, Shanghai

don't underestimate this dollar. According to the calculation of CITIC Securities, the express business volume in November this year is expected to be about 5billion pieces, the average unit price will increase by 0.5 yuan, and the industry gross profit will increase by 2.5 billion yuan

a person in charge of an express delivery enterprise told that the price rise is a price lever and a means of regulating market flow before the peak season. The announcement issued by the enterprise headquarters mainly wants to convey a message to the market, which needs the understanding of customers. At present, the enterprises that increase the price are all in the form of franchise system. Whether or not the price will increase and how much it will increase depends on their own operating costs and market competition. It is impossible to launch a clear price list like SF and EMS

franchise points still have the right to speak

Mr. Li, the head of an express site in Xi'an, said that it was not ruled out that express companies were testing the market reaction, and whether the price adjustment needed to be studied and confirmed by the local franchise points

another express industry insider in Xi'an, who declined to be named, said that from the wording of "cost increase", the two express delivery companies should increase their prices. The local franchisees of these two express delivery companies have a certain degree of autonomy, so the price adjustment announcement is mainly for reference. Whether to increase the price is decided by the franchisees. For example, some franchisees have large business volume, good efficiency and low cost pressure, so there is no need to adjust; Some points will be adjusted if there is a need to raise prices under great operating pressure. In addition, there is a communication time and process from the headquarters to the franchisees, sites and front-line couriers. From a deep perspective, this price adjustment should belong to the headquarters' use of price leverage to adjust internal cost settlement

it was learned from a franchisee of Zhongtong express that the price increase notice of Zhongtong had been issued at the end of September. The notice showed that the price increase would start from November 1, and the time node would be February 14 next year, or it would be reduced again after the Spring Festival

the cost of labor and materials is increasing.

for the reasons for the price rise, Yunda Express's letter to customers said: "affected by the rising cost of labor, materials and operations." The reasons for the price increase given by Zhongtong are basically consistent with Yunda

as a labor-intensive industry, the increase in human costs has been a challenge for the express industry. As China's express delivery industry enters the era of "100 million pieces a day", the working pressure of express delivery workers is increasing. According to the survey of third-party agencies, about 70% of couriers said they were overwhelmed

the most direct way to stabilize the courier team is to increase its delivery revenue. Prior to the announcement of the price adjustment, express companies have announced an increase in the dispatch fee standard, with an additional charge of 0.2 yuan per ticket within 1 kg. As part of the cost of express delivery, the increase of delivery fee will inevitably be transmitted to the express price

the increase in material costs, including cartons and printed sheets, is a prominent phenomenon this year. In September this year, Nine Dragons Paper, the largest corrugated box base paper enterprise in China, announced to raise the price of corrugated box base paper. Statistics show that in the past year, the price of corrugated base paper has increased by about 70%. As a result, the price of a carton has increased by 0.2 to 0.5 yuan

according to the data of China's paper industry, as of the end of September, the price of waste paper has exceeded 3000 yuan/ton, which is better than excellent steel, and the price of base paper has exceeded 6200 yuan/ton. Since 2016, the price of paper has increased by more than 100%, and the peak price has been constantly refreshed. From October 6 to 8, 31 of the 40 paper mills in the country raised the purchase price by yuan/ton

it is reported that all corrugated paper uses waste paper as raw materials, and the importance of waste paper in carton production raw materials is self-evident. However, in mid August 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection issued the 2017 edition of the catalogue of imported waste management, in which unsorted waste paper was adjusted from restricted to prohibited imports, and recycled (scrap) paper and paperboard, including special paper, were also included in the "prohibited list". With the overall contraction of waste paper imports, paper production is naturally limited

there is a level 1 point: no one makes money for three years.

"no one works without raising prices. The investment costs millions of yuan a year, and the profit is not even enough for loan interest." Mr. Yang, the boss of a franchise point in Gansu Province, told that many bosses have transferred investment. They can support it if they can, and they want to operate normally if they don't make money

this point operated by Mr. Yang belongs to the first level point of directly joining the headquarters, which is of a large scale. At present, there are 20000 express mails entering and leaving Hong Kong every day. Since joining in 2009, it has been basically in a state of not making money since 2014

the first level directly joining the headquarters doesn't make money at all. What's the problem? Mr. Yang said that the service requirements were high and the delivery fee was low. Take the spare parts sent from Gansu to Beijing as an example. Before 2014, it was 15 yuan, but now it is only 10 yuan or 8 yuan

in the express industry, prices are divided into e-commerce prices and ordinary bulk cargo prices. "E-commerce customers keep their prices very low and earn only a few cents per ticket. Before the double 11, major customers increased by 1 yuan per order and bulk items by at least 2 yuan per order." Mr. Yang has a firm attitude towards the price rise

express companies have shifted from volume to quality.

Zhongtong and Yunda, which issued the price adjustment notice this time, are the express companies with the first and third market share respectively according to the business volume in the first half of the year, and have great influence in the industry. "In addition to SF, which takes the high-end route, other express companies are expected to follow up later." Insiders said

in addition to relieving cost pressure and ensuring service quality, the price increase of express delivery will also have a significant impact on the trend of the whole industry

according to public data, from 2013 to 2016, the average unit price of express delivery in China fell from 15.69 yuan/piece to 12.71 yuan/piece, basically maintaining the range of "one piece per year". Seizing market share at low prices and relying too much on e-commerce components have led to high labor intensity but little profit at the grassroots level. The saying "death by rising prices, death by not raising prices" vividly describes the dilemma of the express industry in a price war

however, after the collective listing of the six major express delivery companies, the industry pattern is undergoing major changes. "On the one hand, the pursuit of market share through price war has come to an end after the collective listing; on the other hand, a large number of third and fourth tier express companies have withdrawn from the market, new entrants have not posed a threat, and the development of the industry has entered a relatively stable period." CITIC Securities said that after years of double 11, major express delivery companies are increasingly pursuing network stability and service quality, and gradually give up the behavior of reducing prices and changing quantities. The price rise is a clear signal

store owners choose not to raise the price of express companies

express companies raise the price, and the stores on various e-commerce platforms are the most affected. Both Taobao shopkeepers and wechat store owners said that the express delivery enterprises announced price increases near the double 11, which was somewhat "looting"

"it will affect whether it is mailed or not." The owner of a cosmetics store on Taobao said that their products are not like clothing products with less power. They can only use plastic bags, "we have a high dependence on cartons." Avoid collision, he said, the price rise of postal goods will make profits thinner. For goods that do not include postage, when customers click to pay, they find that the freight increases, and some customers will ask the store to pay the freight

"fortunately, only two companies have raised prices at present, and we still have a choice." Mr. Wang bluntly said that they would choose the express delivery enterprises that did not increase their prices when sending mail. At present, their store sends out at least dozens of goods every day, sometimes oneortwo hundred. During the double 11 last year, their store sent thousands of pieces a day, and one express delivery rose by two yuan, which would be a huge expenditure

the market value of the two express delivery enterprises rose by 6.5 billion

express delivery is a growth stock in the logistics sector. The international post office predicts that by 2020, the business volume of the industry will reach 70billion pieces, with a total revenue of 800billion yuan

after the announcement of the price increase, the share price of China express rose by 5.6%, and the market value increased by $546 million (about 3.6 billion yuan) a day, with the highest increase of 10.61%, while the increase of China express in the past year was -13.46% in the CTI test

on October 11, the stock markets of Shentong, Yunda, Yuantong and SF express companies listed in China were all red. Among them, Yunda, which announced the price adjustment, increased the most, up to 5%, and the market value of the company increased by more than 2.9 billion yuan. Shentong, Yuantong and SF increased by 4.36%, 1.89% and 0.93% respectively

Tianfeng Securities believes that the mapping effect brought by Zhongtong and Baishi to a shares when they were listed in the United States is very prominent. This price adjustment of Zhongtong can release a positive signal to the market, which will further ignite the market's enthusiasm for double 11 speculation

some analysts believe that considering the profit commitment period of A-share express listed enterprises, the price increase probability can be transmitted to the whole industry and sustainable, and the industry will break the situation or welcome good opportunities

warehousing and logistics sector welcomes two catalysts

"The announcement of price increase led by China connect express may be a signal of improvement in the industry in the medium term, but due to the uneven distribution of franchise mode and supply, it is not possible to provide guidance for price increase, and the success of price increase remains to be seen. However, the performance of Tongda is highly sensitive to price, and the announcement of price increase signal is more meaningful. The industry is growing rapidly, and after the valuation is digested, it is faced with switching, double 11 and other supporting plate valuations. It is suggested to continue to choose the best layout of express stocks and pay attention to China connect express." Delivery, Yuantong express delivery, etc. " Liu Zheng, an analyst in the transportation industry of CITIC Securities, further believes that

affected by the price increase of Zhongtong and Yunda, combined with the double 11 expectations, the warehousing and logistics sector performed well on the 11th, with the overall sector rising by 1.82%, ranking sixth in the sector. On the same day, Yuanshang shares were closed to the daily limit. In addition, Jiacheng international, Tianshun shares and Changlian shares all increased by more than 6%

some analysts believe that this price increase has reversed the declining trend of express delivery prices over the years, and is expected to alleviate the valuation repression factors of a major industry and improve performance, with a significant catalytic effect

expect diversified products and high-quality services

insiders tell us that although the price is increased or not, how much is the reason

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